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The last year has been very trying for everyone, and
the semiconductor manufacturing industry in
particular.
I still believe that the industry over-reacted by cutting
back too far as is evident now by the fast snap-back in
chip unit volume production levels. The subcontract
assembly/test
companies are virtually out of capacity, with customers
starting to be put on allocation and capex being spent
to add capacity.
2010 should see a healthy recovery in the capital
equipment sector from the depressed (and in fact
depressing)
lows of 2009. First, we'll see it in assembly/test, closely
followed by Fab equipment. Sounds familiar?... Yes, it
is
the same profile of a recovery we have seen many
times
before. There are certainly some fundamental
changes in the industry, but this just means adapting
strategies to be successful going forward.
Tech demand is not dead. I believe that it will likely
resume chip unit growth at a pace slower than the
14%
CAGR of the 2003-2008 consumer-driven era, but still
positive enough for
the industry to enjoy a return to some level of
prosperity. I am already hearing of selective recruiting
contracts being placed and in fact have seen a
noticeable up-tick in activity in just the last
month. Long may it continue!
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I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all the very best for the Holiday Season, and a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2010 ! |
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I have only managed two of these "quarterly" bulletins this year. I try to not burden your already over-stuffed electronic mailbox, but intend these as a means of keeping in touch with clients, contacts and industry friends. If you would rather not receive it, please follow the unsubscribe instructions below. If you need any help with strategic marketing, independent industry analysis, diligence studies, expert witness, need a speaker for an event, etc. - or just want to catch up... please give me a call or email.
Sincerely,
 Ron Leckie
INFRASTRUCTURE Advisors
phone:
408-255-0853
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